← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 46% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 15' | ⚽ | Niko Bungert · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Yunus Malli · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fabian Frei · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 24 |
| 6 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 641.00 | 1815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1687.33 | 1669.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.99 | -0.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |