← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochen Drees, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Stefan Lex · Ingolstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 85' | ⚽ | Raúl Bobadilla · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟥 | Tobias Levels · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Halil Altintop · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 127.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1450.00 | 1506.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.31 | -12.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.67 | 58.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.22 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.89 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |