← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 36% | 36% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 851.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1549.07 | 1654.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.73 | -19.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.25 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.63 | 4.88 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.82 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |