← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 44% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 26% | 25% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Yunus Malli · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jairo Samperio · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Max Christiansen · Ingolstadt |
| 85' | ⚽ | Levin Öztunali · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Max Christiansen · Ingolstadt |
| 86' | 🟥 | Max Christiansen · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days | 620.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1588.66 | 1457.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.41 | -31.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 62.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.13 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.04 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |