← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 35% | 38% | 2.77 | value: +5% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 35% | 32% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sebastian Langkamp · Hertha |
| 65' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 74' | ⚽ | Niklas Stark · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 629.00 | 1239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1575.83 | 1592.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.01 | 41.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 64.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 4.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |