← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 34% | 2.47 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 32% | 36% | 3.08 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1592.08 | 1642.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.26 | 29.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.57 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.86 | 41.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.29 | 4.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 26.85 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |