← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 60% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.99 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 16% | 6.36 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pablo De Blasis · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alexander Milošević · Darmstadt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Yunus Malli · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 607.00 | 1415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1600.42 | 1475.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.41 | -6.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.25 | 52.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 29.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -3.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.75 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -2.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |