← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 52% | 37% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 20% | 36% | 4.92 | value: +78% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 85' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lukas Hinterseer · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Levels · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lukas Hinterseer · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 27 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1232.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1587.92 | 1456.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.39 | -51.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 61.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.83 | 4.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.55 | -1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |