← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 75% | 77% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.08 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 8% | 11% | 11.54 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1634.60 | 2033.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.63 | 4.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 37.67 | 55.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.86 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 70.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 2.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.07 |
| state index | 0.62 | 2.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |