← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochen Drees, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Darmstadt win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Artem Fedetsky · Darmstadt |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
| 30' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lamine Sané · SV Werder Bremen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · SV Werder Bremen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1400.00 | 1218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1476.45 | 1501.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.88 | -20.96 |
| eye test v1 | -1.62 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 29.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -3.20 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.45 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |