← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 25% | 29% | 3.96 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Robert Bauer · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Theodor Gebre Selassie · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1211.00 |
| 1393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1615.67 | 1715.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.35 | 4.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| league points | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.75 | 83.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.75 | 54.75 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.75 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |