← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.93 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 16% | 17% | 6.21 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Leon Guwara · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leon Guwara · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟥 | Leon Guwara · Darmstadt |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| coach days |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 115.00 |
| 1393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1519.01 | 1483.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.34 | -19.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -1.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 59.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 64.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.75 | 28.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -3.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -2.68 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |