← Bundesliga 2015-16 · Wed, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 86% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.75 | value: +27% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 4% | 5% | 24.43 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.