← Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 78% | 75% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.73 | value: +19% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 7% | 8% | 13.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.