← Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 40% | 45% | 2.48 | value: +11% |
| FC Augsburg win | 33% | 26% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.