← Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 38% | 41% | 2.60 | value: +5% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 34% | 33% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 24 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.