← Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 78% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 16% | 7.12 | value: +14% |
| Nurnberg win | 8% | 9% | 12.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.