← Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67% | 83% | 1.46 | value: +21% ⚠ |
| Draw | 17% | 10% | 5.62 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 15% | 6% | 6.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.