← Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 47% | 56% | 2.08 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 26% | 17% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.