← Bundesliga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 56% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.01 | value: +24% |
| Wolfsburg win | 19% | 13% | 5.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.