← Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 49% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
| Nurnberg win | 23% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.