← Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 59% | 47% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 17% | 28% | 5.50 | value: +54% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.