← Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.