← Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.