← Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 41% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +9% |
| SC Freiburg win | 29% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.