← Bundesliga 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 38% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 35% | 31% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.