← Bundesliga 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 68% | 62% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.75 | value: +15% |
| Nurnberg win | 12% | 13% | 8.50 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.