← Bundesliga 2008-09 · Wed, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bielefeld win | 43% | 30% | 2.20 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29% | 49% | 3.20 | value: +56% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.