← Bundesliga 2008-09 · Tue, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 46% | 39% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Hannover win | 26% | 34% | 3.60 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.