← Bundesliga 2005-06 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Nurnberg win | 36% | 28% | 2.60 | fair |
| Hertha win | 34% | 52% | 2.70 | value: +40% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 20% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.