← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 61% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese +1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Como 1907 +1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | David Okereke · Cremonese |
| -5' | 🟥 | Milan Đurić · Cremonese |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jesús Rodriguez · Como 1907 |
| 21' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Cremonese |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jesús Rodriguez · Como 1907 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Como 1907 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Anastasios Douvikas · Como 1907 |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Cremonese |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 71' | 🟥 | Alberto Grassi |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cremonese | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jari Vandeputte · Cremonese |
| 81' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 296.00 |
| 692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1575.47 | 1811.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.30 | 6.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 34.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.36 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.26 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.41 |