← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 37% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 33% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| US Lecce +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · US Lecce |
| 20' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · US Lecce |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tarik Muharemovic · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Danilo Veiga · US Lecce |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tiago Gabriel · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonino Gallo · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nikola Štulić · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| coach days |
| 715.00 |
| 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1688.62 | 1562.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.98 | 2.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 49.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.36 | — |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.80 |