← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 10:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.10 | value: +22% |
| SS Lazio win | 14% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| SS Lazio −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Kenneth Taylor · SS Lazio |
| 40' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 42' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 70' | 🟥 | Wesley · AS Roma |
| 70' | 🟥 | Nicolò Rovella · SS Lazio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 320.00 |
| 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1845.63 | 1749.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.15 | 2.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 67.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.75 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 1.45 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 28.07 |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.50 |