← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 10:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 71% | 72% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +8% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.38 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 22' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 34' | ⚽ | Cher Ndour · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jack Harrison · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 258.00 |
| 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1868.31 | 1689.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.39 | -8.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 68.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.64 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.58 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 28.53 |
| state index | 1.33 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.23 |