← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, May 11, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| SSC Napoli −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 38' | 🟨 | João Mário · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 47' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alisson Santos · SSC Napoli |
| 58' | 🟨 | Eivind Helland · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jhon Lucumí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Rowe · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 709.00 | 709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1877.64 | 1744.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.91 | -25.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 70.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 9.11 | 8.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 27.14 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.92 |