← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 42% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
| Atalanta BC win | 29% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Éderson · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 51' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raoul Bellanova · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Krstović · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Christopher Nkunku |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 282.00 |
| 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1815.96 | 1796.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.14 | -20.26 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 67.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.66 |