← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 68% | 64% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 11% | 15% | 8.50 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 +1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · AS Roma |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gabriel Strefezza · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gabriel Strefezza · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mariano Troilo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sascha Britschgi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mandela Keita · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sascha Britschgi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sascha Britschgi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Devyne Rensch · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Donyell Malen · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| coach days |
| 313.00 |
| 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1628.79 | 1839.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.91 | 14.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.89 | 5.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 27.74 |
| state index | 0.34 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.59 |