← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cremonese win | 49% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Pisa win | 24% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pisa −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cremonese −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 0 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |