← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, May 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Galipo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 36% | 30% | 2.63 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 34% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Torino FC +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Luca Lipani · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luca Marianucci · Torino FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kristian Thorstvedt · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matteo Prati · Torino FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Torino FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Marcus Pedersen · Torino FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kristian Thorstvedt · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Niels Nkounkou · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gvidas Gineitis · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico di Torino |
| coach days |
| 280.00 |
| 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1647.19 | 1698.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.22 | 30.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 5.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.12 |