← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, May 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 62% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +3% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 16% | 15% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| AS Roma −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 17' | ⚽ | Wesley · AS Roma |
| 25' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 58' | ⚽ | Niccolò Pisilli · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1830.24 | 1701.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.32 | -1.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 61.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 9.11 | 8.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.89 | 28.53 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.21 |