← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 9' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 24' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 24' | 🟥 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ulisses Garcia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alieu Fadera |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 701.00 |
| 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1679.34 | 1834.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.94 | -31.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 46.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 29.38 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.07 |