← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, May 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 40% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Pisa win | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| US Lecce +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lameck Banda · US Lecce |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mehdi Léris · Pisa |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michel Aebischer · Pisa |
| 65' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · US Lecce |
| 66' | 🟨 | Walid Cheddira · US Lecce |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rafiu Durosinmi · Pisa |
| 88' | 🟨 | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henrik Wendel Meister · Pisa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pisa | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani |
| coach days | 273.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1536.41 | 1597.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.42 | -14.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 26.49 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.74 |