← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 42% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 50' | ⚽ | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Arthur Atta · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oier Zarraga · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arthur Atta · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniel Maldini · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 665.00 |
| 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1758.92 | 1669.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.82 | 31.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 9.11 | 9.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 29.48 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.99 |