← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 45% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| US Lecce +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · ACF Fiorentina |
| 62' | 🟨 | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tiago Gabriel · US Lecce |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tiago Gabriel · US Lecce |
| 76' | 🟨 | David De Gea · ACF Fiorentina |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jacopo Fazzini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manor Solomon · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days |
| 293.00 |
| 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1553.26 | 1706.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.04 | 14.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.11 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.53 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.13 |