← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 64% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 15% | 16% | 6.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Como 1907 +1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 65% | 1.62 | value: +5% |
| Under | 41% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Jacobo Ramón · Como 1907 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Como 1907 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ismael Koné · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cristian Volpato · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Como 1907 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kristian Thorstvedt · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 685.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1696.53 | 1842.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.65 | 10.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 4.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 25.76 |
| state index | 0.18 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.52 |