← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 40% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +6% |
| Como 1907 win | 31% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Como 1907 +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +8% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Petar Sucic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 79' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carlos Augusto · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ange-Yoan Bonny · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacobo Ramón · Como 1907 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1850.37 | 1977.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.54 | -5.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 58.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.34 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 1.69 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 30.85 |
| state index | 1.42 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.40 |