← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 66% | 70% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 13% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Juventus FC −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · Juventus FC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 217.00 |
| 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1848.31 | 1653.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.94 | 17.22 |
| eye test v1 | 2.04 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 54.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.84 | 16.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.85 | — |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.97 | 1.32 |