← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 45% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cremonese +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | João Mário · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jon Rowe · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Cremonese |
| 75' | 🟨 | Federico Ravaglia · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟥 | Youssef Maleh · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cremonese | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| coach days | 247.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1598.80 | 1772.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.54 | -20.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.90 | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.40 |