← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 68% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 11% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Atalanta BC −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hellas Verona FC −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand