← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 70% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 11% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Torino FC −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 36' | ⚽ | Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan |
| 44' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Torino FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · AC Milan |
| 56' | ⚽ | Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Vlasic · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emirhan İlkhan · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 232.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1911.02 | 1687.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.75 | 4.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| league points | 60.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 7.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.20 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.92 |